Thinking, in the open.
Short essays on how we think about risk, diversification and discipline — the reasoning behind the platform, written for investors who like to see the working.
- June 16, 2026
MethodologyYour Sharpe Ratio Has a SecretA single number compresses two market environments into one. Average performance across regimes can hide the fact that a strategy was excellent in one and dangerous in the other. A primer on conditional Sharpe.7 min read - June 2, 2026
MethodologyThe Forecast TrapMost portfolio construction starts with an expected return forecast. We don't — and the reason is structural, not philosophical. A look at why the input most investors trust the most is the one the math trusts the least.6 min read - May 19, 2026
Portfolio theoryYou Don't Own 30 Stocks. You Own One Bet.Real diversification is not measured in ticker count. It is measured in how positions move together. Most "diversified" portfolios turn out to be a single bet wearing thirty disguises.7 min read - May 12, 2026
Portfolio theoryDrift Is a DecisionDoing nothing with a portfolio is not a neutral act. It is an active reallocation toward whatever has been winning — usually at the worst possible time. A look at the hidden cost of inaction.6 min read - May 5, 2026
Behavioral financeWhy Your Brain Is the Biggest Risk in Your PortfolioThe disposition effect isn't a personality flaw — it's a structural bias built into how humans process gains and losses. Understanding it is the first step to building around it.5 min read - April 14, 2026
MethodologyWhat Regime Detection Actually Means (And What It Doesn't)Every market passes through distinct environments. Classifying them probabilistically is not prediction — it is evidence-based positioning. A clear-eyed primer on what the model does and doesn't claim.7 min read - March 10, 2026
Portfolio theoryThe Case for Rules-Based RebalancingDiscretionary rebalancing feels prudent but introduces the same bias it's meant to correct. A look at why pre-committed, rules-based discipline outperforms — not because of alpha, but because of consistency.6 min read