Perspectives

A single number compresses two market environments into one. Average performance across regimes can hide the fact that the strategy was excellent in one and dangerous in the other.

Why Cacao does not try to predict next year's returns. The case against return forecasts as the centerpiece of portfolio construction — and what to build around instead.

Real diversification is not measured in ticker count. It is measured in how positions move together. Most "diversified" portfolios are actually a single bet wearing thirty disguises.

Doing nothing with a portfolio is not a neutral act. It is an active reallocation toward whatever has been winning — usually at the worst possible time. Quantifying the cost of drift.

The disposition effect isn't a personality flaw — it's a structural bias built into how humans process gains and losses. Understanding it is the first step to building around it.

Every market passes through distinct environments. Classifying them probabilistically is not prediction — it is evidence-based positioning. A clear-eyed primer on what the model does and doesn't claim.

Discretionary rebalancing feels prudent but introduces the same bias it's meant to correct. A look at why pre-committed, rules-based discipline outperforms not because of alpha — but because of consistency.